A Time Series Prediction Was Requested With A Start Time Further In The Past Than The Internal Models Of The Mining Model
Feb 19, 2008
Hi all,
I have a very simple time series model which processing works fine without any problem. However when I run the following query
SELECT
[TimeSeries].[PriceChange],
[TimeSeries].[Symbol],
PredictTimeSeries(PriceChange, -3, 2)
From
[TimeSeries]
WHERE
[TimeSeries].[Symbol] = 'x'
I get the following error:
TITLE: Microsoft SQL Server 2005 Analysis Services
------------------------------
Error (Data mining): A time series prediction was requested with a start time further in the past than the internal models of the mining model, TimeSeries, specified in the HISTORIC_MODEL_GAP and HISTORIC_MODEL_COUNT parameters can process.
The following is the excerpt of the minding model script related to the two parameters:
<AlgorithmParameters>
<AlgorithmParameter>
<Name>MISSING_VALUE_SUBSTITUTION</Name>
<Value xsi:type="xsdtring">Previous</Value>
</AlgorithmParameter>
<AlgorithmParameter>
<Name>HISTORIC_MODEL_GAP</Name>
<Value xsi:type="xsd:int">1</Value>
</AlgorithmParameter>
<AlgorithmParameter>
<Name>HISTORIC_MODEL_COUNT</Name>
<Value xsi:type="xsd:int">10</Value>
</AlgorithmParameter>
</AlgorithmParameters>
These HISTORIC_MODEL_GAP (1) and HISTORIC_MODEL_COUNT (10) should accommodate PredictTimeSeries(PriceChange, -3, 2). Could anyone shed some light on this?
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Oct 27, 2007
Hi all,
I have MS Time Seeries model using a database of over a thousand products each of which has hundreds of cases. It amazingly takes only a few minutes to finish processing the model, but when I click Mining Model Viewer to view the models, it takes many hours to show up. Once the window is open, I can choose model for different products almost instantly. Is this normal?
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Mar 15, 2008
I probably posted my question in the wrong forum so please check here:
http://forums.microsoft.com/TechNet/ShowPost.aspx?PostID=3009605&SiteID=17
thanks
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Nov 29, 2006
I am using BI Dev Studio for SS2005 in a research (as opposed to a production) environment. Often I want to compare the results of multiple models using the same attributes. If I switch to a different model, the Design view completely resets. Is there any way to retain the same field names with different models in the Design view?
My current workaround is to give my models similar names with AR, DT, CL, LOG, NN suffixes and make global changes in the DMX.
I have consulted the following without finding an answer:
http://msdn2.microsoft.com/en-us/library/ms178445.aspx
http://msdn2.microsoft.com/en-us/library/ms175642.aspx
http://msdn2.microsoft.com/en-us/library/ms175678.aspx
http://msdn2.microsoft.com/en-us/library/ms175637.aspx
Thanks for your help,
Sam
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Jan 19, 2008
Hi I made an model based on MS time series
and want to see some result in Mining Model Viewer (SSAS 2005)
The chart displayed under tab "Charts" is as expected, but when i increase
"predictions steps" onlsy the shadowed part of chart becomes bigger, but the prediction curve behaves unchanged...
What can I do?
Thanks
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Dec 24, 2007
Hi
In this site sample €œgenerate DMX creation statement for a server mining structure and contained model€? I didn€™t understand, what is output? You say output is like a table, but I don€™t know what usage of this sample is because my request was about showing the result of time series algorithm. please notice my question, I should use a query like this for connecting with forecasting model
€œSELECT
PredictTimeSeries(amount)
From
[Forecasting]€?
And then save this value in the text box?
Also I should have training for showing value in the text box, which stage I should do it, this stage is after creating model or no?
In time series algorithm, training is equivalent of historic prediction?
In this code why these items are unknown and after running we have error
In server. Connect for server and in database db for database and in MiningStructure ms for MiningStructurewe have error .
private void button1_Click(object sender, EventArgs e)
{
Microsoft.AnalysisServices.Server server = new Server();
server.Connect("data source=localhost");
Database db = server.Databases["DMClass"];
foreach (MiningStructure ms in db.MiningStructures)
{
MessageBox.Show("Processing " + ms.Name);
ms.Process(ProcessType.ProcessDefault);
}
MiningStructure msIris = db.MiningStructures["Iris"];
MiningModel mm = msIris.CreateMiningModel(true, "newModel");
mm.Algorithm = MiningModelAlgorithms.MicrosoftClustering;
mm.Update();
mm.Process(ProcessType.ProcessDefault);
server.Disconnect();
}
Please alittle define this code.
What is diffrence between amo and adomd ?
And for viweing prediction vlue in textbox and connecting I can use both of them
And how can I build a child form?Thanks a lot for your answers
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Sep 25, 2006
Hi,
I've got a time series of the number of new customer subscriptions, which
is the target attribute to predict. The number of subscriptions depends on
various marketing activities, such as mailings, which are known within
the time series for the past.
If I train an ART (MS Autoregression Tree), it learns the trend pattern
as well as the correlations between the marketing activities and the
target (cross-correlations), right?
What I would like to do is, providing the model with some marketing activity
planning for the future and let the model predict the number of new
subscriptions based on a) the past trend pattern and b) the future activities.
Unfortunately a time series algorithm does not provide some kind of scoring for input data.
What would be the best approach to solve this problem? How about linear regression?
But how to train a regression model with trend patterns?
Thanks for your help!
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Nov 26, 2007
hi
i have aques tion about mining model and time series after predicting
how can i show the result of the prediction in the c# form
and why i cant use the all of the prediction function in the mining
model prediction for time series and how i can see the script of the
building mining model in the model because i can see just the wizard
of the model and how can i undrestand othe about time series formula
in the chart
thanks alot if answer me
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May 21, 2006
Is it possible to group many time series into clusters by using the clustering algorithm of the SQL server 2005. The same question applies to "association rules" technique. Any examples?
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May 29, 2007
i'm building a time series model in visual studio, forecasting sales. but it shows
The graph cannot be created because of the following error:
'All actual columns are ending in NULL: data unacceptable for viewer'. (Microsoft Visual Studio)
can anyone help solve this? the data is by month (for 3 years) and i want to forecast 3 months in the future.
thanks!
lxm
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Jun 5, 2007
Hi, all here,
I want to hear from you for your experiences on how can we be convinced by what the model predicts particularly for Time Series algorithm? As we are not able to see the model accuracy chart for that, in this case, how can use the model results? E.g. we wanna know the possible sales amount of next month for a particular store in order to buy in the goods, in this case, how can we make the most of the prediction by the model? To shop ower, well, if the result is too far away from the usual sales amount, then it is unbelievable, thus, in this case, what else can we try? Keep training the models until its results sounds reasonable? Or what else can we try?Thanks in advance for your advices and help and I am looking forward to hearing from you shortly.
With best regards,
Yours sincerely,
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May 31, 2007
Hi, all experts here,
Thank you very much for your kind attention.
I encountered a very strange problem again. Why the time series displayed on the chart are so strange? The Key time column I chose for my time series algorithm is cal_month(e.g 199001...), but why the date displayed on the time series chart is like :05/06/2448? (it should be like 199001..?) What is that data? And where exactly did it come from? What is the exact cause of this?
Hope it is clear for your help.
I am really confused on this and thanks a lot for your kind advices and help and I am looking forward to hearing from you shortly.
With best regards,
Yours sincerely,
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Jul 15, 2006
Hi,
I have built a Time Series model to forecast Sales Value. I have used data form Jan 2005 to Sep2006 to train the model.
When
I write a DMX query to forecast the sales value for next 5 months, it is throwing me the output in the following format.
$TIME Sales Value
200610 2874
200611 2875
200612 2874
200613 2874
200614 2874
whereas the output i expected was.
$TIME Sales Value
200610 2874
200611 2875
200612 2874
200701 2874
200702 2874
What changes should i make in the model to get the output in the above format.?
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Jul 27, 2006
Hi,
I have built a Sales Forecast model to predict the sales
value.
Along with making historic predictions for previous time
periods I also want to retrieve the actual sales values for those periods.
How can I achieve this in a time series model?
I also would like to know how do mining models store the data.
Do they store the data in the same table/view format
as their respecive data source view or in the Model Content format.
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Nov 8, 2006
As the Microsoft Time Series algorithm implementation is based upon the Autoregressive Tree approach described in:
C. Meek, D. M. Chickering, D. Heckerman. Autoregressive Tree Models for Time-Series Analysis. In Proc. 2nd Intl. SIAM Conf. on Data Mining, 2002 (SDM-02). SIAM, pp. 229 €“ 244. http://www.siam.org/meetings/sdm02/proceedings/sdm02-14.pdf.
The model estimated is refererred to as an instance of "... autoregressive tree models of length p, denoted ART(p). An ART(p) model is an ART model in which each leaf node of the decision tree contains an AR(p) model, and the split variables for the decision tree are chosen from among the previous p variables in the time series..." (see the last paragraph of p. 2 of the paper).
What is the value of "p" used in the Microsoft Time Series implementation -- specifically, how many previous time series variables are used in estimating the model? It doesn't appear that this value can be specified in the algorithm parameters -- is that correct?
Thanks,
- Paul
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Jun 5, 2007
Hi, all,
Again I encountered a very strange problem which displayed the predicted attribute values as percentage format? The data type of the attribute is actually double, why is that?
That's really frustrated.
Thanks a lot in advance for your kind advices and I am looking forward to hearing from you shortly.
With best regards,
Yours sincerely,
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Sep 18, 2006
i want create a model to predict what product i should Ads for customer at time.
example: in summer, i should show the , drinks (coca, pepsi) , ice food, bikini, sandals, glasses. in winter, i should show shoes, coats, hot food....
i have some table:
order(orderid, time,cusid...)
product(productid,..)
orderdetails(orderid, productid..)
customers(cuisid,....)
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Jun 26, 2007
Mining Model Prediction... what for?
Which Data Mining algorithm use Mining Model Prediction?
Every algorithm has to use Mining Model Prediction for a final goal of a Data Mining Project?
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Feb 11, 2008
Is there a way to display the actual predicted value for an output attribute for a particular model. For example, say I am trying to predict if a particular customer is going to take advantage of a promotion (0=no, 1=yes) and I use neural networks. I know that I can use "Predict" to give me the prediction "yes" or "no" for each customer. However, the neural network actually spits out a number as a result. For example, a 0.997 would be interpreted as a "yes" for life insurance promotion. I do not want the probability that the prediction is correct. I want the actual output for the network.
The reason being is that I want to compute an error rate between the predicted value and the acutal value (root mean squared error or some other measure). Is there a way to compute this using the mining model prediction tab design view? I do not want to write the actual query as I teach a course in data mining using SQL Server and my students do not know DMX queries.
Thanks for any help you can provide.
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Sep 14, 2007
Hi,
I am not getting Mining Accuracy Chart and Min ing Model Prediction
Plz tel me how to do.And how to use the filter input data used to generate the lift chart and
select predictable mining model columns to show in the lift chart
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Dec 28, 2007
HI
Thanks a lot for your answer
I say my request but I don€™t know why anybody don€™t answer me
I have a project about predicting a value about selling and buying of a good like t-shirts and I use data mining for my project ,so I should use time series algorithm ,that €˜s mean I have previous data about t-shirts for 11 months ago and now I should say for 12th month ,how many t-shirts are sale?
My tables saved on the excel file and it is problem, because how should I use this table for building model?
After building a model and structure and predicting the value of 12th month for this store in the mining model then I use this query in model in bi:
€œSELECT
PredictTimeSeries(amount)
From
[Forecasting]€?
This query showed a column and prediction value.
After all of that now I should show this value in the application so I use c# language for building it, so I use a form in c# then I add a button to form that with clicking on this button, I can connect to my structure and then show process of connecting in the panel, then with clicking on the other button I can use this query
(€œSELECT
PredictTimeSeries(amount)
From
[Forecasting]€?
) and after using I can see prediction value in the textbox, that€˜s mean the value of 12th month show on textbox.
Form has two buttons: one button is for connecting to mining structure and other button is for sending PredictTimeSeries query to structure, one textbox, which is for showing the predicting value for 12th month for selling t-shirts, one panel for viewing the lift chart.
Also you say
You are building an application that programmatically creates mining structure and a model, and then you want to train the model and display some results.
And I don€™t know how can I train my model, I should use a special code for it?
If your answer is say, please explain that and then say that codes are for training.
Please if you can send c# code for Sporadic of stage, please send that, I need to this code; my request is emergency for me.
Thanks a lot
i am very sad because any body don't answer me
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Jul 4, 2007
Hello,
I was working with Microsoft Time Series model (MTS) with some data, when in the mining model viewer, decision tree tab, I realized that the key time variable that I define, it was acting like a split variable.
So, I ask you, this is possible?, because, for me, this should not happen€¦.
After, I review the Data Mining Tutorial by Seth Paul, Jamie MacLennan, Zhaohui Tang and Scott Oveson, and I found, in the Forecasting part, that the key time variable (Time Index) it was acting like a split variable too, in for example, M200 pacific:Quantity and R250 Europe:Quantity.
So people, it€™s possible that a key time variable act like a split variable in a MTS model?
Thanks
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May 31, 2007
Hi, all experts here,
Thank you very much for your kind attention.
I am confused on key time column selection. e.g, I want to predict monthly sales amount, then what column in date dimension should I choose to be the key time column? Is it calendar_date (the key of date dimension) column or calendar_month?
Thanks a lot for your kind advices and help and I am looking forward to hearing from you shortly.
With best regards,
Yours sincerely,
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Dec 15, 2006
I am using VS2005 (VB) to develop a PPC WM5.0 Program. And I am using SQLCE 3.0. My PPC Hardware is in 400MHz.
The question is when the program try to insert the first record into sdf database after each time the program started. It takes a long time. Does anyone know why and how can I fix it?
I will load the whole database into a dataset when the program start and do all the "Insert", "Update", "Delete" in this dataset and fill it into database after each action.
cn.Open()
sda = New SqlCeDataAdapter(SQL, cn) 'SQL = Select * From Table
scb = New SqlCeCommandBuilder(sda)
sda.Update(dataset)
cn.Close()
I check the sda.update(), it takes about 0.08s for filling one record into database normally. But:
1. Start the PPC Program
2. Load DB into dataset
3. Create a ONE new record in dataset
4. Fill back to DB
When I take this four steps everytime, the filling time is almost 1s or even more!
Actually, 0.08s is just a normal case. Sometimes, it still takes over 1s to filling back a dataset which only inserted one record when the program is running. (Even all inserted records are exactly the same in data jsut different in the integer key)
However, when I give up the dataset and using the following code:
cn.Open()
Dim cmd As New SqlCeCommand(SQL, cn) ' I have build the insert SQL before (Insert Into Table values(XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX All field)
cmd.CommandType = CommandType.Text
cmd.ExecuteNonQuery()
cn.Close()
StartTime = Environment.TickCount
I found that it is still the same that the first inserted record takes more time, but just about 0.2s. And the normal insert time is around 0.02s. It is 4 times faster!!!
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Sep 14, 2015
At the moment I already added the DataSet I'm gonna be using. I have 2 date parameters Start Time and End Time.
What I would like to do  for the report is to only pull results greater than 48 hours to the report
How can I accomplish this?
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Apr 26, 2006
Hi, all here,
I am wondering where can I store my mining results in data mining engine? For example, I got mining results like accuracy chart, decision trees, and other formats of results based on different mining algorithms I used for my data mining, so where can I actually store the results for reporting service use later? Is it possible to do that in SQL Server 2005?
Thanks a lot for any help and guidance in advance.
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Jun 18, 2007
Hi, all experts here,
Thanks for your kind attention.
I want to use time series algorithm to mine data from my case table and nested table. Case table is Date table, while nested table is the fact table. E.g, I want to predict the monthly sales amount for different region (I have region table related to the fact table), how can I achieve this?
Thanks a lot and I hope it is clear for your help and I am looking forward to hearing from you shortly.
With best regards,
Yours sincerely,
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Jun 4, 2007
Hi, all experts here,
Thank you very much for your kind attention.
I am confused on key column of case table and key time column of nested table by using Time Series algorithm.
In my case, the case table structure is as below:
Territory key text (the ID is actually dimrisk_key, in this case, I use the name column binding to combine the Territory column of case table Dimrisks),
While the nested table structure is as below:
Cal_month key time (in this case, actually the ID is dimdate_key, again, I used name column bining property to bind the Cal_month to the ID)
So my question is, as the key column of case table has been set to be Territory, as a result, does the model training still cover all the cases (rows) based on the ID of the table?
Also, in the nested table, as the key time column has been set to Cal_month rather than Dimdate_key of the nested table, as a result, would the single series based on the cal_month?
Hope it is clear for your advices and help.
And I am looking forward to hearing from you shortly.
With best regards,
Yours sincerely,
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Nov 2, 2006
I m using the Time Series Algorithm to forecast sales across regions for various products. Assume the model is built with last 3 years data with the periodicity being monthly.
Is it possible that sometimes I can make predictions based on just 1 yr or 2 yrs data for certain products alone or certain regions alone? Can this be done without having to retrain the already built model?
Also, is it possible that using the model, i can predict week-wise / month-wise / quarterly sales as well?
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Mar 21, 2003
Trying to deal with a user complaint of slowness. Many variables looked at which look normal (Buffer cache, queue length,memory). Probably looks like a network issue. My question is what people consider acceptable when it comes to %disk time. My %disk time has increased from an average of 20% to 33% in recent months. My average disk read and average disk write have both been less than one. MY research has showed that more than 55% %disk time for ten minutes is considered a problem. Not there yet but seem to be slowly getting there. THe app running against my server is vendor written so can't change, also running log shipping which is probably inflating the numbers a little.
Any opinions appreciated.
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Mar 9, 2005
Hi All,
I have a table Test1:
ID date Value
AAUGVAL 2/27/198760.848
AAUGVAL 3/2/1987 64.288
AAUGVAL 3/3/1987 63.77
AAUGVAL 3/4/1987 62.495
AAUGVAL 3/5/1987 62.65
AAUGVAL 3/6/1987 62.548
AAUGVAL 3/9/1987 62.292
AAUGVAL 3/10/198763.045
AAUGVAL 3/11/198763.021
....
I am trying to see the value % changes day by day and here is is the code I wrote:
select
starttime=cast(v.date as char(8)), endtime=cast(a.date as char(8)),
startval=v.Value, endval=a.Value,
change=substring('- +', sign((a.Value-v.Value)+2,1)+ cast(abs(a.Value-v.Value) as varchar)
from
(select date,Value, ranking =(select count(distinct date) from Test1 T where T.Value<=S.Value)
from Test1 S) v left outer join
(select date,Value, ranking=(select count(distinct date) from Test1 T where T.Value<=S.Value)
from Test1 S) a
on( a.ranking=v.ranking+1)
I got the following error message:
Server: Msg 174, Level 15, State 1, Line 4
The sign function requires 1 arguments.
Server: Msg 170, Level 15, State 1, Line 7
Line 7: Incorrect syntax near 'v'.
Server: Msg 170, Level 15, State 1, Line 9
Line 9: Incorrect syntax near 'a'.
Could someone please help with this? Thank you in advance!
shiparsons
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Jul 23, 2005
I am trying to write a stored proc the calculates a moving average overthree periods. In the following example, I need to stratify the data bypersonID and RecordID in the #Temp table, but I am not sure how to doit. Right now I am restricting the data I use to build my time series bypersonID and I get the results I want *by PersonID*. If I can figure outhow stratify by personID so I don't have to use this restriction, I'msure I can extend it to the RecordID.Create Table #Temp(tmpID int identity,DetailID int,RecordID int,AdminDate Datetime,AdminTime datetime,Status tinyint,--decimal(9,2),Location varchar(100),PersonID char(9),PatientName varchar(100),DOB Datetime,Drug varchar(100),Sort varchar(10))--populate with data by personIDinsert into#Temp(DetailID,RecordID,AdminDate,AdminTime,Status ,Location,PersonID,PatientName,DOB,Drug,Sort)Select MD.PatMedOrderDetailID, MD.PatMedOrderID, M.Date as AdminDate,Case M.Time When 'A' then '8:00:00 AM' When 'N' then '12:00:00 AM' When'P' then '4:00:00 AM'When 'H' then '8:00:00 PM' else M.Time End as Admintime,100*M.Status, P.Location,P.PersonID, P.Name as PatientName, P.DOB,D.GenericName + ' (' + D.TradeName + ') ' +D.Strength,Left(P.Location,3)From PatMedOrderDetail MD Inner Join PatMedOrder MO on MD.PatMedOrderID= MO.PatMedOrderIDinner Join PatMedPass M on MD.PatMedOrderDetailID =M.PatMedOrderDetailIDinner join Patient P on M.PersonID = P.PersonIDinner join Drugs D on MO.DrugID = D.DrugIDWhere P.PersonID = '000126230'Order by P.PersonID,MD.patMedorderID, M.Date, M.TimeSelect * from #Temp -- to view entire set--returns relevant rowsSelect Derived.RefusalRate,T.* from #Temp T inner join(select t1.tmpID, avg(t2.Status) as RefusalRatefrom #Temp t1 cross join #Temp t2WHERE t1.tmpID>=3 AND t1.tmpID BETWEEN t2.tmpID AND t2.tmpID+2group by T1.tmpIDhaving avg(t2.Status)< 100) as Derived on T.tmpID = Derived.tmpIDDrop Table #Temp*** Sent via Developersdex http://www.developersdex.com ***
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Jul 23, 2005
Given the following table information:HOSTNAME DATETIMEWEBNYC001 2005-06-15 10:30AMWEBNYC001 2005-06-15 10:31AMWEBNYC001 2005-06-15 10:31AMWEBNYC001 2005-06-15 10:34AMWEBNYC001 2005-06-15 10:35AMWEBNYC001 2005-06-15 10:35AMWEBNYC002 2005-06-15 10:30AMWEBNYC002 2005-06-15 10:30AMWEBNYC002 2005-06-15 10:33AMWEBNYC002 2005-06-15 10:35AMWEBNYC002 2005-06-15 10:35AMWEBNYC002 2005-06-15 10:35AMHow can I easily return the following results:HOSTNAME DATETIME COUNTWEBNYC001 2005-06-15 10:30AM 1WEBNYC001 2005-06-15 10:31AM 2WEBNYC001 2005-06-15 10:32AM 0WEBNYC001 2005-06-15 10:33AM 0WEBNYC001 2005-06-15 10:34AM 1WEBNYC001 2005-06-15 10:35AM 2WEBNYC002 2005-06-15 10:30AM 2WEBNYC002 2005-06-15 10:31AM 0WEBNYC002 2005-06-15 10:32AM 0WEBNYC002 2005-06-15 10:33AM 1WEBNYC002 2005-06-15 10:34AM 0WEBNYC002 2005-06-15 10:35AM 3Thanks!
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