Data Mining :: ARIMA Equation Intercept Interpretation

Sep 6, 2015

I get an ARIMA equation in a form like below:

ARIMA ({1,-6.88479117532726E-02,-0.41430691637436},0,{1,4.42986549117398E-03}) X ({1,-0.473450289323228},0,{1,0.013772719862356,-2.14724317829266E-02,-4.80711350511344E-02,-1.15173259713497E-02,-9.86142925337024E-03,1.06803677786174})(6)
Intercept:18561.1721123981

I do understand the coefficients part and the seasonal part as well, however, I have trouble deciphering what exactly is the intercept here. Initially, I thought it would be equivalent to the value of mu in the original Box-Jenkins equation (so indicate a level), then I thought it's an intercept for the AR terms. It seems that none of these interpretations is good. The only official explanation I found at msdn was:

"Normally, the intercept (VALUETYPE = 11) or residual in a regression equation tells you the value of the predictable attribute, at the point where the input attribute, is 0. In many cases, this might not happen, and could lead to counterintuitive results.

For example, in a model that predicts income based on age, it is useless to learn the income at age 0. In real-life, it is typically more useful to know about the behavior of the line with respect to average values. Therefore, SQL Server Analysis Services modifies the intercept to express each regressor in a relationship with the mean.

This adjustment is difficult to see in the mining model content, but is apparent if you view the completed equation in the Mining Legend of the Microsoft Tree Viewer. The regression formula is shifted away from the 0 point to the point that represents the mean. This presents a view that is more intuitive given the current data.Therefore, assuming that the mean age is around 45, the intercept (VALUETYPE = 11) for the regression formula tells you the mean income.

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ARIMA Equation Interpretation

Feb 19, 2008

Hello!

In AS 2008 it is possible to build time series model using ARIMA algorithm. But how exactly the ARIMA model eqation can be interpreted? For example, I have the following ARIMA equation in the mining legend of the (only) node:
ARIMA equation:
ARIMA ({1,1.06331498820371E-02,-9.1320555134096E-04,6.82290767622866E-03,5.16804012070969E-02,5.33387901298971E-02,7.27630334027759E-04,-4.08433722450516E-02},1,{1,0.637381531245194}) X ({1,8.85242031097984E-02},0,{1,3.46939494788227E-02})(26) X ({1},1,{1,-0.94291566648386})(13) Intercept:706.18948950439

I am used to the notations like ARIMA(Autoregressive order, Order of differencing, Moving average order). So, I can guess, that term like {1,1.06331498820371E-02,-9.1320555134096E-04,6.82290767622866E-03,5.16804012070969E-02,5.33387901298971E-02,7.27630334027759E-04,-4.08433722450516E-02} expresses coefficients in either autoregressive or moving average terms. But how can I interpret patterns followed by X like ARIMA(...)X(...)X(...)? Do they express periodical patterns? If so, how can I pick periods from this equation?

Thank you very much in advance.

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Thanks a lot for any help and guidance in advance.

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I am looking forward to hearing from you.

Thanks a lot.

With best regards,

Yours sincerely,

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Hoping someone will have a solution for this error

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Apr 30, 2015

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"Error 6
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0 0
"
I am finding it hard to locate the content that is not valid. I've been trying to find a answer for this problem but can't seem to find anything. How can I locate the content that is not valid and change or delete it so that I can deploy this solution?

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Jun 4, 2015

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I thought I would then explore the possibility of have more than 2 prediction columns, in this case 20.

I get an error message and I can't work out :
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b) if something else has become corrupted
c) there's a know bug and if the error message is either meaningful or not.

Either way, I'm unable to complete the data mining wizard 

The error message is :Errors in the metadata manager. Either the mining structure with the ID of '[my model Structure]' does not exist in the database with the ID of 'DMAddinsDB', or the user does not have permissions to access the object.

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Oct 25, 2007

Hi all,

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In Algorithm Parameters window, this parameters is not there by default, so I have to add it.

Any tip will be greatly appreciated.

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Once implemented, we would have as many as 900 connections to manage (four years from now).  It is possible that multiple sections will be running at the same time, so 40 students may be accessing the data mining tools concurrently.   

Is there a way to "bulk establish" the access credentials and establish those databases?

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Aug 4, 2015

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Hi,
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Model Score Pop Correct Pred Probability
Decision Trees 0.83 76.59% 54.28%
Neural Network 0.75 67.63% 50.05%
Ideal Model 100.00%


Can anyone help with this and give a detailed explanation?

Many thanks,
S Rajput

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Hi,



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The format of my data is like this



OrderID Product

100 Bike

100 Helmet

100 Shoes

200 Helmet

200 basketball

200 Bat

300 Shoes

300 Socks



The associate button works perfectly since it asks me which column is the transaction id (orderid) and which column I am trying to predict (product). The advanced create mining model asks me to determine what the columns are...

OrderID=key Product=Input+Predict?



When I run the advance create mining model associate, I get a browser that gives me no rules and the support for only one item itemset (each product but no combination of products).



Does anyone know what I have to do to get it to work like the associate button?

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I also need to add the same mining model (e.g. Bayes, Cluster) to each of these mining structures.
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Thanks.
Joe.

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Hi, all here,

Thank you very much for your kind attention.

I am wondering if it is possible to use SSIS to sample data set to training set and test set directly to my data mining models without saving them somewhere as occupying too much space? Really need guidance for that.

Thank you very much in advance for any help.

With best regards,

Yours sincerely,

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Jun 7, 2006

Hi all,

until recently ive been using a rank equation to calculate rank,

essentially doing a select statement and selecting this as the rank field, where query 2 is the same as query 1:

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problem is that this is now running like a dog (takes 10 secs) and i'd like to try and do this another way- 2005 has a rank function, how can i do this in 2000?

here is the full statement :

SELECT StudentId, GCSE_Score, LTRIM(STR
((SELECT COUNT(*)
FROM dbo.[Score2004-05]
WHERE GCSE_score < s.GCSE_Score) + 1)) AS GCSE_Rank, SetId
FROM dbo.[Score2004-05] S
WHERE (SetId = '2004/2005')

greg

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I tried =SUM( whole expression but that didnt work) you can laugh at me I know but any help would be great!

=Switch(Fields!eqprecdt.Value< CDate("1 Jan 2007"),Fields!bookvalue.Value*datediff("d",Now(),#1/1/2007#)* .07/365,Fields!eqprecdt.Value> CDate("1 Jan 2007"), Fields!bookvalue.Value * datediff("d",Now(),Fields!eqprecdt.Value)* .07/365)*-1

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Apr 30, 2007

Hi everybody



Is there a way to show HTML tags in a SQL Server Reporting services just like we are used to do in Crystal Reports?




I my case, I use the property Text Interpretation: HTML (right click in parameter field inside report and click edit parameter menu option).




I was wondering if we have something similiar in Reporting services?!

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Sep 25, 2007

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Intercept Error

Jan 22, 2007

Hello,
i wrote this:

set @lsSql1 ='INSERT INTO '+@lsInvolvedTable+
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' [DataOraAcquisizione])'+ ' VALUES ( '+@IdTag+','''+ @TagName+''','+@FieldNumber+', '+@TagValue+', '+@HeatID+','+@HeatNumber+','+@OrderNumber+','''+@lsDataOraAcquisizione+''')'

exec (@lsSql1)

IF (@@ERROR <> 0)
begin
set @TagErrorVal = 1
print ' assegno errore'
print @TagErrorVal
return @TagErrorVal
end

But if exec (@lsSql1)generate error i cant' intercept it by IF (@@ERROR <> 0).
How can i retrive error?!?!?

Thank's

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Hi,

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Does anyone have any suggestions about how best to implement this? I have searched through the BOL but nothing directly deals with what I want to do.

Thanks,

Blair

P.S. I am using SQL SERVER 2005 ENT Edition with everything available.

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Aug 12, 2007



Dear All
The problem is I am going to predict the production for different category of product.
attributes are
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A production - predict only
B production -predict only
C production -predict only

And in the SQL it is impossible to to give input and predict (I am not sure whether that is a error or not).

And in the decision tree
for the
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Product C product C >=35454


I want to know why the label is changing time to time.
Please help me on this. Thank you
Menik



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Dec 28, 2007

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Thank you.
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Dec 20, 2006

Hello,


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I execute the package successufully with the following code (c#):


MyEventListener eventListener = new XplorerEventListener();
DtsApplication app = new DtsApplication();
Package pkg = app.LoadPackage("c: est.dstx", null);
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MyEventListener is inherited from DefaultEvents, overriding all OnXXX methods.


It works perfectly, however I cannot intercept the following events:


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TIA,
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[System.Reflection.Assembly]::LoadWithPartialName("Microsoft.SqlServer.SMO") | Out-Null
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[Code] ....

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Hi, all experts here,



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I am looking forward to hearing from you and thanks a lot in advance for your advices and help.



With best regards,



Yours sincerely,



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Jun 15, 2007

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Dec 20, 2006

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for(UINT i=0;i<in_ulCaseValues;i++) {
DM_ATTRIBUTE_VALUE& dmattributevalue = in_rgValues;
ULONG iAttribute = dmattributevalue.Attribute;
if (iAttribute == DM_UNSPECIFIED)
continue;
double dblValue = ::DblContinuous(dmattributevalue.Value);
char buffer[129];
sprintf(buffer,"%f ",dblValue);
RENAN_Log::log(buffer);
}
return S_OK;
}

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I expected Predict() received a matrix containing all my data, but the only thing I noticed that could represent the data is that in_rgValues vector. So I can go through this vector, but it holds only the first register of the table in the database (that's what's being saved on my log). I need all of the registers in order to pre-process the data and implement my clustering algorithm.

Well... That's it... I would be very pleased if you could help me.

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SPREADSHEET 1
Column 1, Column 2
100, ?
101, ?
102, ?
103, ?

SPREADSHEET 2
Column 1, Column 2
102, 202
100, 200
103, 203
101, 201

In this example, the data in Column 1 is always tied to the data in Column 2 (i.e., 100 in Column 1 means 200 in Column 2, etc.) However, the data for Column 2 is only available in SPREADSHEET 2; moreover, the data is not in the same order in both spreadsheets.

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