Doubts Regarding Sales Forecast Model

Aug 5, 2006

I have few more clarification regarding time series.
Firstly
In my model the month level product sales value represented across 1st day of every month. So that the key time column is of datetime datatype containing a sequence of dates representing the 1st day of every month of the year.
Eg: 2006-01-01, 2006-02-01€¦€¦€¦. etc. all in (yy-mm-dd) format
But
when I make prediction for next five months, though it makes monthly
predictions the date part for the months are random whereas I expect
the date part to be 1st of every month. What is the reason for this and how can I overcome it.
Secondly
Predicted
sales values for some time period are negative though I do not have any
negative value in the training data. What is the reason for this and
how can I rectify it?

Thirdly
In
one of your earlier posts you had said that the time series algorithm
does not have any built in time intelligence but uses the key time
column as a time sequence stamp. So If have to make predictions for a
particular time period where the time slice for each time period is 25
days or 50 days etc, then I understand that the input data used to
train the model should be in the same time sequence.
Or
Can I specify the span of the time period according to which the prediction needs to be made?
Basically
how can I use the same time series model to make monthly, yearly,
quarterly, daily or predictions or for custom time period like I have
mentioned above.

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Problem With Historical Prediction In Sales Forecast Model

Aug 2, 2006

Hi,

I have built a time series model to forecast sales value


I have data from jan 2004 to jan 2006 and the sales value is
at a day level in my database. But I am aggregating it to month level in the
DSV of the mining model.



I am required to make only historical predictions using the
above model starting form jan 2004 to jan 2006 for every month.



I have set Historical_Model_Count
and Historical_Model_Gap parameter
values to 24 and 10 respectively, and trying to predict for the past few months
(PredictTImeseries(SalesValue,-1,1))


But its throwing me the following error



Error(Data Mining): A time series
prediction was requested with a start time further in the past than the
internal models of the mining model, Sales Forecast, specified in the
HISTORIC_MODEL_GAP and HISTORIC_MODEL_COUNT parameters can process





In fact it throws the above error irrespective of what the Historical_Model_Count and Historical_Model_Gap parameter values
are





I am not able to figure our why this problem is happening?



What should the parameter values for the above scenario?


It would also be helpful if I can get an explanation on how
these two parameters affect the historical predictions. I kind of understand
that these two parameters are important for historical predictions but don€™t
know why or how.

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Aug 3, 2006

Hello...

 

I am new to SSAS and i want to try to build a "Sales" model. I will have some "Usage" data for some timespanns, but I am not quite sure how to tackle this. Is there somewhere a "Howto" for this?

 

Edit: There are several locations, and for each location a forecast is needed. And the Icing would be If I would be able to tell where my supplies must go 1st to achieve the best sales...

The potential Client wants to use Oracle but I would like to show them that SQL Server is the better tool for this ;)

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Sep 30, 2015

I want to calculate the sum of actual sales until a date and forecast sales after a date.I am not sure what the best approach to this problem is, but I have tried my best with the following approach. Any better ways to solve this (using DAX).

I have created a parameter table that offers the last date of each month as possible choices to the user. I have tried to create a measure that sums actual sales up until this date.

SalesQuantityActual:=IF(HASONEVALUE(parLastActualMonth[Date]);CALCULATE(factSalesActual[Quantity];factSalesActual[Date]<=VALUES(parLastActualMonth[Date]));BLANK())

Unfortunately the measure above does not work.

In addition to the parameter table, I also have a normal date table.

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May 24, 2006

Hi

I am new to Data mining in SQL Server. I am using SQL 2005 to create a forecast model for Product sales. I two fact tables that I am using. One has all the Orders historically with the line item details. The other table is a time dimension table which has the value of each of the time values referenced in the Orders. So the time dimesion has multiple values for one day as it goes down to the hour the order was placed.

Can I create a forecast using the time series algorithm in the Data mining module. When I tried to use this algorithm, I got an error that the time is not synchronized with starting series "Unknown" and I should try to set the missing_value_Substitution parameter to previous.

Can some one explain to me how this will resolve my issue. I read in one of the articles on Data mining that in order to use the time series algorithm , I need to have unique set of values for the time. Can some one help me with this

Thanks

AY

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Jun 21, 2006

Read only transacted replication to about 60 clients. 100 or so transactions a day (8 hours), transaction (record) is probably about 8K/transaction. Reliable connection over 100base-T. Latency - 15 minutes would be great.



This doable? -- I couldn't find a timing/ sizing model any place.

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Jul 27, 2006

Hi,



I have built a Sales Forecast model to predict the sales
value.
Along with making historic predictions for previous time
periods I also want to retrieve the actual sales values for those periods.


How can I achieve this in a time series model?



I also would like to know how do mining models store the data.

Do they store the data in the same table/view format
as their respecive data source view or in the Model Content format.

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May 19, 2015

i am trying to find a way to link an 'initial' Sale ID of a product to 'future' Sale IDs of products that will trace back to the original Sale ID.For example, if I call the original sale , 'Sale ID #123',  how can i link future Sale ID's (child[ren]) and all future sales to the original Sale ID #123? Can I use a Surrogate Key or similar function?

Parent:Sale ID #123
Children: Sale ID # 456,
Sale ID #789,
Sale ID #.....

how I can link the original Sales ID (Parent) to Sale ID's (child[ren]) of future purchases currently existing and in the future going forward?

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Dec 9, 2014

I have the below data. I need to produce a report that shows customer and total sales who had the max sales by year.

Order ID Cust ID Year Sales
O1 C1 2000 100
O2 C1 2000 150
O1 C2 2000 50
O1 C1 2001 150
O2 C3 2001 200

Report:

Cust ID Year Sales
C1 2000 250
C3 2001 200

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Running 2005 Beta 3 Refresh.  When I first deploy, it works fine. Subsequent deployments yield the following error:

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Nov 16, 2006

Using the TimeSeries algorithm, how do I forecast more than one time period ahead? I read in you book on page 182 that PredictTimeSeries function can take a parameter for the number of time periods you want to predict. Fore example, SELECT PredictTimeSeries(Bread,5) tells the algorithm to predict the next 5 time periods. Can you tell me how to change that parameter using the graphic interfaces?

Thanks!

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Dec 17, 2014

Background is that I am recreating charts in SSRS that were being created in Excel. The source data is residing in a SQL Server database. I'm having a hard time coming up with a SQL query to provide a 6 month forecast. I can get my data into a pivot (within a stored procedure) in the following format:

Period---------Date--------------------------------Percent
1--------------2013-11-01 00:00:00.000---------0.3762
2--------------2013-12-01 00:00:00.000---------0.3584
3--------------2014-01-01 00:00:00.000---------0.3604
4--------------2014-02-01 00:00:00.000---------0.3292
5--------------2014-03-01 00:00:00.000---------0.3519

[Code] ....

I need to forecast the next 6 dates 12/1/2014 thru 5/1/2015 using the last 6 months in the data set (periods 8 thru 13)

Period---------Date--------------------------------Percent-------Forecast
1--------------2013-11-01 00:00:00.000---------0.3762
2--------------2013-12-01 00:00:00.000---------0.3584
3--------------2014-01-01 00:00:00.000---------0.3604
4--------------2014-02-01 00:00:00.000---------0.3292
5--------------2014-03-01 00:00:00.000---------0.3519
6--------------2014-04-01 00:00:00.000---------0.4064

[code].....

how to use the first table to generate the forecast values in the second table.

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Rolling Data In Forecast And Cumulative Totals Question

Oct 12, 2007



I have a result set that looks like this:





Code Block







Quarter

Year

EstimatedValue

ClosePercent

EstimatedCloseDate


4

2007

100000

50

12/31/07 5:00 AM


4

2007

20000

50

11/30/07 5:00 AM


4

2007

20000

90

10/30/07 5:00 AM


1

2008

278000

50

3/31/08 5:00 AM


4

2007

200000

50

11/30/07 5:00 AM


4

2007

225000

90

10/31/07 5:00 AM


4

2007

36500

90

10/31/07 5:00 AM


4

2007

80000

90

10/31/07 5:00 AM


4

2007

107200

90

10/31/07 5:00 AM


4

2007

225000

75

12/31/07 5:00 AM


4

2007

35000

50

12/31/07 5:00 AM




I have create a simple tabular rolling forecast report (with cumulative totals) from today (October) thru the next 12 months that looks like this. It smartly works no matter when the report is generated, by starting with this CurrentMonth and moving forward by using 1,2,3,4,etc. in the dateadd: =MonthName(datepart("m",dateadd("m",1,Now())))

The report sample (formatting lost in dropping it in here):




Code Block
















Close Pct
October
November
December
January
February

25.%
$0
$0
$26,625
$0
$0

50.%
$237,500
$110,000
$262,500
$0
$0

75.%
$56,250
$0
$891,075
$0
$0

90.%
$1,051,830
$0
$0
$0
$0

Monthly Total
$1,345,580
$110,000
$1,180,200
$0
$0

Cumulative Total
$1,345,580
$1,455,580
$2,635,780
$2,635,780
$2,635,780





It is working fine....there doesn't seem to be anything wrong with it (all numbers total correctly, etc.), but it is very unelegant.....and I know there must be a better way.

In the righthand most month (which would be September 2008) column, I have a formula that produces the amount (the Monthly Total amount is the same):




Code Block=sum(iif(datepart("m",dateadd("m",11,Now()))=datepart("m",Fields!EstimatedCloseDate.Value),Cdec(Fields!estimatedvalue.Value*Fields!ClosePct.Value*.01),cdec(0)))




and for the Cumulative Total Amount it gets really hideous, as it is trying to add up all of the totals across the board:




Code Block
=sum(iif(datepart("m",dateadd("m",0,Now()))=datepart("m",Fields!EstimatedCloseDate.Value),Cdec(Fields!estimatedvalue.Value*Fields!ClosePct.Value*.01),cdec(0))+iif(datepart("m",dateadd("m",1,Now()))=datepart("m",Fields!EstimatedCloseDate.Value),Cdec(Fields!estimatedvalue.Value*Fields!ClosePct.Value*.01),cdec(0))+iif(datepart("m",dateadd("m",2,Now()))=datepart("m",Fields!EstimatedCloseDate.Value),Cdec(Fields!estimatedvalue.Value*Fields!ClosePct.Value*.01),cdec(0))+iif(datepart("m",dateadd("m",3,Now()))=datepart("m",Fields!EstimatedCloseDate.Value),Cdec(Fields!estimatedvalue.Value*Fields!ClosePct.Value*.01),cdec(0))+iif(datepart("m",dateadd("m",4,Now()))=datepart("m",Fields!EstimatedCloseDate.Value),Cdec(Fields!estimatedvalue.Value*Fields!ClosePct.Value*.01),cdec(0))+iif(datepart("m",dateadd("m",5,Now()))=datepart("m",Fields!EstimatedCloseDate.Value),Cdec(Fields!estimatedvalue.Value*Fields!ClosePct.Value*.01),cdec(0))+iif(datepart("m",dateadd("m",6,Now()))=datepart("m",Fields!EstimatedCloseDate.Value),Cdec(Fields!estimatedvalue.Value*Fields!ClosePct.Value*.01),cdec(0))+iif(datepart("m",dateadd("m",7,Now()))=datepart("m",Fields!EstimatedCloseDate.Value),Cdec(Fields!estimatedvalue.Value*Fields!ClosePct.Value*.01),cdec(0))+iif(datepart("m",dateadd("m",8,Now()))=datepart("m",Fields!EstimatedCloseDate.Value),Cdec(Fields!estimatedvalue.Value*Fields!ClosePct.Value*.01),cdec(0))+iif(datepart("m",dateadd("m",9,Now()))=datepart("m",Fields!EstimatedCloseDate.Value),Cdec(Fields!estimatedvalue.Value*Fields!ClosePct.Value*.01),cdec(0))+iif(datepart("m",dateadd("m",10,Now()))=datepart("m",Fields!EstimatedCloseDate.Value),Cdec(Fields!estimatedvalue.Value*Fields!ClosePct.Value*.01),cdec(0))+iif(datepart("m",dateadd("m",11,Now()))=datepart("m",Fields!EstimatedCloseDate.Value),Cdec(Fields!estimatedvalue.Value*Fields!ClosePct.Value*.01),cdec(0)))




I have searched high and low for examples of reports that do something similar.

Can anyone offer any advice?

Thanks.

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Hi,

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Starting copy...
Msg 2627, Level 14, State 1:
Server 'DHRUVA', Line 1:
Violation of PRIMARY KEY constraint 'PK_docket_booking4_1__10':
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It does not insert any rows to the database. Is there anyway I can overcome this error and
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regards
Ramesh Seetharaman.

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Hi,


set @DN=''

set @DN=@DN+'AA9999'
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ColumnA is NonClusteredIndex

When I use = symbol it goes for Index Seek (like below query) otherwise its going for table scan. Could anyone advice me which index need to be used for getting 'Index Seek' when I use like Operator. Basically TableA has millions of records.

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Regards
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Hi All,

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AG



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